Path integral control of a stochastic multi-risk SIR pandemic model.

In this paper a Feynman-type path integral control approach is used for a recursive formulation of a health objective function subject to a fatigue dynamics, a forward-looking stochastic multi-risk susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) model with risk-group's Bayesian opinion dynamics toward vaccination against COVID-19. My main interest lies in solving a minimization of a policy-maker's social cost which depends on some deterministic weight. I obtain an optimal lock-down intensity from a Wick-rotated Schrödinger-type equation which is analogous to a Hamiltonian-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation. My formulation is based on path integral control and dynamic programming tools facilitates the analysis and permits the application of algorithm to obtain numerical solution for pandemic control model.

Should everyone in need be treated equally? A European survey of expert judgment on social vulnerability to floods and pandemics to validate multi-hazard vulnerability factors.

Several European countries were affected by severe floods in 2021. At the same time, despite the deployment of vaccines, Europe was the COVID-19 pandemic's epicenter several times during 2021. One research aim of this study is to identify socio-demographic groups vulnerable to floods and whether the groups vulnerable to floods and pandemics overlap or are disjoint. We ran a survey in four languages (English, French, German, and Spanish) and collected the judgment of 366 experts in disaster risk management and first-responders to find out how those people caring for "people in need" (be it operational or administratively) think about which persons are more at risk than others. Another research aim is to validate multi-hazard vulnerability factors by comparing judgment on groups vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic and to floods. The main findings are that experts think that socially vulnerable groups should be rescued or treated first. Treating everyone equally is less favored by comparison. Infrastructure losses, followed by economic losses, reveal better than deaths or psychological issues whether vulnerability played a role in a disaster. Regarding vulnerability characteristics, older, homeless people, and immigrants rank highest, and most factors can be used to explain both flood and COVID-19 vulnerability, while some differ; for example, mobility impairment is less important for COVID-19. There are major discrepancies between what respondents think should be done to prioritize help to certain groups and what they have experienced is being done on the field.

A methodological proposal to assess and manage environmental-health risks in Italy

The recent pandemic has affected health and lifestyles, highlighting the vulnerability of cities and territories, such as the ecological-environmental and climate crisis, as a result of progressive urbanization-urban connections. The health emergency was governed in the absence of geographical-territorial references, often generalizing limitations and actions to contain the spread of the Sars- Cov2 virus. In this framework, a methodological policy approach is proposed for cities and territories, for multi-risk management (environment-health) in order to overcome the gap that the health emergency has further highlighted, both in the context of the completion of the reform of intermediate institutions in Italy and in the transitions in progress (energy, ecological and digital). Copyright © FrancoAngeli.

Living in a Multi-Risk Chaotic Condition: Pandemic, Natural Hazards and Complex Emergencies.

Humans are living in an uncertain world, with daily risks confronting them from various low to high hazard events, and the COVID-19 pandemic has created its own set of unique risks. Not only has it caused a significant number of fatalities, but in combination with other hazard sources, it may pose a considerably higher multi-risk. In this paper, three hazardous events are studied through the lens of a concurring pandemic. Several low-probability high-risk scenarios are developed by the combination of a pandemic situation with a natural hazard (e.g., earthquakes or floods) or a complex emergency situation (e.g., mass protests or military movements). The hybrid impacts of these multi-hazard situations are then qualitatively studied on the healthcare systems, and their functionality loss. The paper also discusses the impact of pandemic's (long-term) temporal effects on the type and recovery duration from these adverse events. Finally, the concept of escape from a hazard, evacuation, sheltering and their potential conflict during a pandemic and a natural hazard is briefly reviewed. The findings show the cascading effects of these multi-hazard scenarios, which are unseen nearly in all risk legislation. This paper is an attempt to urge funding agencies to provide additional grants for multi-hazard risk research.